Category Archives: don’t bet on it

New Year’s Day

Outback: Woke up too late to play it.

Capital One: Really want to play Michigan State.  Not going to for personal reasons.

Gator:  Possible play on Clemson.  

Rose: Only looking at the under here.

Orange:  Cincy, especially after I heard that the team was staying at the same hotel as Diddy’s NYE party.  That dude knows how to prep a team for victory.


Only One Today

Music City Bowl:  This play has nothing to do with Vanderbilt playing a “home” game in Nashville.  Vandy +3.5 (-110) for 2x. 

More NCAA Football Non-Playoff Games

Humanitarian Bowl:  I’m not really sure why (1) this game is on at 4:30pm on a Tuesday, and (2) why so many people are rushing to back a mediocre ACC team plus a field goal.  When looking at any line, if it seems like the odds makers want you (you = the gambler) to bet on a certain side, it is usually a good idea to do the opposite.  Or pass altogether.  Nevada -3 (+106) for 2x

Holiday Bowl:  The only thing separating what these two teams have accomplished this season is that one was in the top ten for a few weeks, played a few more meaningful games in primetime, and thus, received much more exposure than the other.  Oregon +3 (-110) for 1x

Texas Bowl:  In an NFL Network game that no one can watch, both teams come into the bowl game at 9-3.  Sagarin sees both of them as equal — the Sagarin Rating, ELO Chess, and Predictor numbers do not favor one team by any significant amount.  Similarly, the FEI ranks both these teams in the 50-70 range — WMU with the slight advantage.  If both of these teams have been relatively equal on the field, why is one of them receiving a lot more action than the other?  That was a rhetorical question.  Western Michigan +3 (-109) for 1x

Does a Legitimate College Football Program Give Out Rings for Winning Regular Season Games?

I think not.

AJC:  Tech Players to Commemorate Win Over Georgia with Ring

O Benevolent Baseball God, Please Make it So

Breaking:  we are possibly approaching the most satisfying moment of the offseason.  

ESPN:  Jones in Dodgers-Mets talks

More on this as it develops — and if it does, this could be the mail-it-in story of the decade, as well as proof that God is a Braves or Phillies fan.

The Bowl Game Formerly Sponsored by Poulan Weedeaters

The Independence Bowl.  Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois.  Shreveport, LA.  If you aren’t excited by this game, clearly you do not have a gambling problem.

(not playing it)

Champs Sports Bowl

The collective sports media “preview” of the Champs Sports Bowl game features one of my favorite phrases in college football.  You hear it from time to time through the regular season, but it really comes alive when bowl season starts, when teams from the SEC (and to a lesser extent ACC) play against teams from the Big 10.

“TEAM A is faster than TEAM B.”

Problems with this statement:  (1) it usually refers to the perceived speed of skill players and the defense, (2) it is usually not accompanied by any empirical evidence (i.e. 40-yard dash times), (3) it assumes that increasing overall team speed is leads to an increased probability that a team will achieve victory.

Wisconsin +6 over Florida State (-103) for 1x.